InvestorQ : Why has Moody’s been warning India of a rating downgrade?
rhea Babu made post

Why has Moody’s been warning India of a rating downgrade?

1 year ago

This is largely driven by the spike in borrowings in the latest development as announced by the government of India. On Friday 08th March, the government announced a revised borrowing calendar for the fiscal year 2020-21. Due to the COVID-19 allocations and lower revenue flows, the government opted to hike the annual borrowing level from Rs.7.80 trillion to Rs.12 trillion. That is a spike of over 50%. The first half is likely to see borrowings to the tune of Rs.6 trillion. This is likely to put the ratings of India at risk; and here I am referring to the sovereign ratings. In the last few weeks, Moody’s has consistently warned that any spike in debt levels combined with COVID-19 could result in India’s sovereign rating being downgraded. Currently, India is above Speculative grade and any downgrade from here would push Indian bonds to Junk status. For FY21, the fiscal deficit has already been hiked from 3% to 3.5% in the last Union budget. However, with borrowings up by over 50%, we could see the fiscal deficit spiking to above the 5% of GDP mark. Moody’s and even Fitch have warned that such an event would be the trigger for a rating down grade.