Brent Crude is now at an 18-year low of $22.6/bbl after macro estimates pegged global oil demand to fall by 30% due to global COVID-19 shutdowns. Apart from weak demand, there is the larger risk of supply glut with Saudi Arabia pledging to increase its oil exports to 10.5 million bbl per day from April. Oil analysts and traders are already bracing for the 1998 low of $10/bbl. The latest from the US shale market is that banks are going slow on lending to shale companies. It was liquidity and low cost of credit that fuelled the shale boom in the US. Now, the value of shale reserves are down 65% in the last 3 months and banks have started worrying about the falling value of their collateral. It needs to be seen how the demand / supply equation stabilizes, but still lower levels are possible.