Normally, the initial few days of the rains are important as it determines how much the farmers are able to do in the sowing season. A late monsoon obviously means delayed sowing, which will eventually impact your total food grain production. That is something which one can only know by around August or September. Normally, farmers of grains, pulses, cotton and sugarcane wait for the monsoon to start before they start sowing and planting seeds. That is why if the onset of rains is delayed, it impacts the food grain output and even if it gives normally rainfall later, it is not very useful to the farmer.

India had record production in 2016 and in the last 2 years, despite slightly below average rainfall, the food grain production has been maintained at very high levels. The timely arrival of food grain into the market is essential to keep the price under control as it will otherwise lead to food inflation and hit the prices of scores of other products and commodities also. You will have really wait and see how quickly the monsoon progresses and whether the overall monsoon this year is average or below average.