InvestorQ : What is the market outlook and NIFTY for the week starting on 17thAug?
simran Kaur made post

What is the market outlook and NIFTY for the week starting on 17thAug?

Answer
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1 month ago


A sell-off on Friday afternoon on the back of poor clues from global markets abruptly ended the week-long party in Indian markets. However, the small-cap still managed to close the week with good 2% gains, while benchmark indices ended the week with marginal cuts. Financials and energy were the worst performing sectors for the week, while Media and Metals performed best. Pharma and auto also recorded decent gains. Bonds witnessed a sell-off on surprise CPI spike. INR was a tad stronger. Momentum increased as market activity recorded sharp acceleration. Implied Volatility was lower.

The threats of a "second wave" bothered global markets, but mostly the traders continued to wear the "risk-on" hat. Equities recorded decent gains, with Japan outperforming. Precious metals witnessed sharp correction and heightened volatility, while copper recorded decent gains. Bonds sold off, while USD also ended a tad lower.

The outlook and trend for Indian equities remain mostly unchanged from the previous week. The momentum however has started to increase, indicating that the probability of a sudden change in the market outlook and trend is rising gradually. For now, the near term (daily charts) and short term (weekly) Nifty trend and outlook continue to remain positive. The monthly trend remains neutral. 

For this week:

The day traders may avoid trading in the 11007-11198 nifty range. The long positions may be held with a stop loss of 10938. Outstanding short positions may be held only with a strict stop loss of 11365. New shorts may be avoided till Nifty closes firmly below the 10795 levels. A close above 11365 will open a small probability of a new NIFTY all-time high in the subsequent 23 weeks. The current up move will reverse only if Nifty closes below 10795. All prices spot.

 For Bank nifty, the up move stalled two weeks ago, however, the down move has not gotten triggered. It, therefore, continues to remain in no trading zone. All short positions must be held with a strict stop loss of 22097. Day Trading may be avoided in the 21533-21970 range. A close below 20730 anytime in the next eight trading sessions could trigger a midterm (9-15 months) down move in Bank Nifty. For all long positions maintain a stop loss of 21110. All prices spot.