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Mary Joseph made post

What are the major trading and investment cues for the week beginning on November 11?

Answer
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sara Kunju answered.
9 months ago


The week is likely to be quite action packed due to a number of triggers and cues. Here are some of the major cues.

· The Ayodhya verdict is likely to add certainty and stability to the markets and that is likely to be positive overall for markets due to the week. At least it ends the uncertainty of the outcome and the way it has been received will be positive for the markets.

· Tuesday will be a trading holiday and that is likely to make traders cautious in the early part of the week due to the current risk in global markets.

· The IIP or the index of industrial production number will be announced on November 11 and that is likely to be a key number after the weak performance of IIP last month and the negative performance of core sector this month.

· The inflation numbers are also likely to be announced this week. The CPI inflation will be announced on Tuesday and the WPI on Thursday. Markets are expecting CPI inflation at above 4% and that is likely to be an overhang on the stock markets as it could make the RBI rethink on further rate cuts. RBI had stipulated 4% as the cut-off level for the inflation to justify rate cuts.

· The Nomura estimates of growth will also be a key factor. Last week in its report, Nomura projected 4.2% growth in GDP for the second quarter and 4.9% for the full year, which is the lowest estimate till now. This could also be an overhang on the market during the week.

· FPI flows have been quite strong in the month of November with more than Rs.12,100 crore coming into markets in the first week of November. The flows were almost equal in equity and debt and that is nearly 75% of the total flows that Indian markets got in the month of October. That should hold the markets in positive zone.

· Indian IT companies should breathe a sigh of relief after a US Court refused to strike down work permits for H1-B visas to the spouses of Indians working in the US. This should come as a temporary relief for Indians settled abroad and would also be positive for Indian IT companies, which use this visa benefit extensively.

· Equity MF flows fell to almost half over the last one year but on the positive side the SIP flows have maintained above the Rs.8200 crore. That is good for market flow stability. Also the sharp flow into index ETFs is a good sign for markets overall.

· The INR weakened sharply on Friday after the Moody’s outlook downgrade on fears that it could impact the cost of borrowings. However, most large borrowers have confirmed that the impact would be minimal. It could be more temporary.

· There are some key results expected this week which includes marquee names like Adani Ports, Alkem Labs, Britannia Industries, Coal India, Mahanagar Gas, NMDC etc. these are also likely to leave an impact on the market.

Overall the market cues are likely to be positive for the markets although traders may choose to be cautious due to a truncated trading week.