InvestorQ : What are likely to be the major trading and investment cues for the week commencing on 17 February 2020?
Crowny Pinto made post

What are likely to be the major trading and investment cues for the week commencing on 17 February 2020?

Answer
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8 months ago


Here are some of the key triggers for the week commencing on Feb-20 and how they will impact the trading approach during the week.

· AGR ruling by the Supreme Court is likely to favour Bharti Airtel and will be loaded against Vodafone Idea on funding concerns

· Overhang of high inflation at 7.59% to continue. In fact, CPI inflation at 7.59% raises the spectre of higher bond yields, which is negative for bank bond portfolios

· With the trade deficit crossing $15 billion in January 2020 one can expect pressure on the INR and also on FPI flows

· Chinese Coronavirus death toll at over 1500 will remain an overhang for the global markets and could rub off on the Indian markets too

· Crude could bounce back during the coming week as the virus toll peak and crude oil could get a boost from OPEC/Russia supply cut extension

· Mega bank merger announcement expected during the week and the plan to merge 10 banks into 4 banks might be implemented before April this year

· Global data points for the week will include FOMC minutes, US Manufacturing PMI, Euro CPI as well as Japan Manufacturing PMI

· Dollar index (DXY) strength to be closely watched after the strong start to the year. If that happens, the INR could slip beyond the Rs.71.40/$ mark to Rs.72/$ levels

· MPC minutes on 20th Feb could be critical in setting the tone of future rate action based on critical discussions amongst the six members

· Keep an eye on impact of telecom stress on banks as private banks like IndusInd, HDFC Bank and Yes Bank have large exposures to telecom in fund and non-fund exposures

· Auto makers could be hit this week as dealers insist that auto makers shift to BS VI production after SC rejected FADA request to sell BS IV vehicles after April 2020

· China support to local producers after virus pandemic could be a mini stimulus but also endangers India’s plans to fill the gap