InvestorQ : What all get impacted by negative interest rates? I would be unhappy to pay the bank for holding my money.
indhumathi Sayani made post

What all get impacted by negative interest rates? I would be unhappy to pay the bank for holding my money.

shrinidhi Rajan answered.
2 years ago

That is obvious. In fact, the negative yields will have multiple implications for different stakeholders. Here you can look at some of them.

Negative interest rates and central bank monetary policy

Central banks like ECB and BOJ are currently in a corner as they do not have room to cut rates any further to push up growth. Cutting rates in such cases will not spur growth.

Central banks have used negative rates to suppress their currencies versus the dollar to spur exports. However, in a trade war scenario, that does not really work.

Negative interest rates and fiscal deficit

Since rates are negative, a high ratio of Debt/GDP looks palatable, but that can be very misleading assuming that rates start to rise once again.

Negative rates could spur households and governments to go on a spending spree due to easy availability of funds and liquidity

Negative interest rates and corporate treasuries

Treasurers have a unique dilemma of matching their long term liabilities with matching investment yields. That is difficult when rates are negative.

Treasurers may become victims of the myth of substantially cheaper debt versus equity and that could eventually lead to asset / liability mismatches.

Negative rates and equity investments

Technically falling rates are positive for equities as they reduce the cost of capital. That is not necessarily the case with negative interest rates

Banking stocks are most vulnerable as they will be hit by compressing yields and also will have to pay central banks to park.

Negative rates and bond investments

Negative rates are a sign of the central bank’s weak outlook for economic growth. This typically creates a flattening of the yield curve as yields at the long end of the curve fall sharper than the short end.

Negative rates and impact on global currencies

Negative rates create currency crowding. In the last few years we have seen investors and traders crowding towards currencies like the dollar and Yen which creates volatility in the currency markets.

Negative rates are a proxy for devaluation and this has the potential to degenerate into a full-fledged currency war. Emerging market currencies are the most vulnerable.