While Moody’s has given its first estimates for the full year 2020, one can safely assume and infer the fourth quarter GDP number from that. In fact, Moody’s has sharply downsized India’s GDP growth for fiscal 2020.

Despite GDP growing at an average of 4.7% in the first three-quarters of FY20, Moody’s has cut growth forecast for FY20 from 2.5% to just 0.2%. This is due to a combination of demand and supply constraints. This essentially implies that fourth-quarter growth could be deep in the negative zone.

That is hardly surprising considering that many sectors have been under lockdown for a better part of the quarter. The actual GDP data will be out only on May 31 but the pressure on the fourth-quarter GDP growth slipping into negative is almost accepted now.