You are right that ICRA has come out extremely pessimistic growth estimate for FY21. Earlier, ICRA had projected5% contraction but has now downgraded to 9.5% contraction for FY21. ICRA attributed this downgrade in growth estimates to a spate of fresh COVID infections with daily afflictions crossing the 30,000 mark for the first time.

It is hard to say if this possible because some like former chief statistician, Pronab Sen, have gone to the extent of projecting a 12.5% contraction in FY21. While the recovery in Q3 and Q4 may be slower, we will get a clearer picture of the macro situation based on the corporate numbers for Q1. Surprisingly, numbers have not been too bad, so there is hope.