These are two separate issues altogether. You will know the people’s reaction only when the curfew is lifted but the international reaction has just about started trickling. Let us look at the likely reaction in greater detail.

How could the developed and emerging world react?

At the outset most of the countries have regarded this as the internal matter of India and hence they have not really bothered to get into this but such reactions could change over a period of time. While most of the economically powerful nations like the US, China, Japan and the rich nations of Europe have been surprisingly silent, things could change as more media reports start to trickle in. That is perhaps because the media blackout has ensured that little news comes out. A world that has strongly condemned the Israeli occupation of Gaza and West Bank will not be able to remain neutral for too long considering that Kashmir has been an internationally disputed territory. There are 3 major reactions to be watched. Firstly, the US is yet to fully articulate its reaction but they do need Pakistan’s support at this point of time as they prepare to exit fully from Afghanistan. That could be the key. Secondly, China has been a long time ally of Pakistan and they have staked claim to Aksai Chin, which is part of Ladakh. We may get to see more of Chinese reaction in the coming days. Lastly, the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) stand is not yet clear although some of the Arab nations have chosen to remain neutral. Over the next few weeks, the Pakistan PM will be meeting all the OIC nations to protest this move. That could have an impact and could hold the key for Pakistan.

What will be the public reaction after curfew is lifted?

This is the question that needs to be really answered and is the real X-factor at this point of time. Kashmir has been quiet due to a curfew clampdown but that obviously cannot go on forever. Due to the media clampdown, there is not even the slightest evidence of how the people of Kashmir would react once the curfew is lifted. Also, Pakistan has made its displeasure clear and they would just get another opportunity to persist with their ambush strategies. The big challenge for the Indian government after the curfew is lifted would be handling tensions across the border (especially in POK) and convincing the people of Kashmir that this move is in their interest.